WORKING PAPER

WORKING PAPER

FROM SHOPPING TO STATISTICS: TRACKING AND NOWCASTING PRIVATE CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN REAL-TIME

CESifo Working Paper No. 10764, 2023

(with F. Fourné)

Submitted

In this paper, we use high-frequency transaction data to develop a weekly tracker for private consumption expenditures. Furthermore, we apply the transaction data in a nowcasting experiment and compare their performance with other, readily available indicators that are regularly linked to private consumption in Germany. The weekly tracker produces precise estimates and can thus be used in real-time, especially in very turbulent times such as a pandemic or the high-inflation-phase in its aftermath. In terms of nowcast accuracy, the tracker outperforms all remaining indicators, making it a powerful tool for applied forecasting work. We plan to regularly publish the weekly consumption tracker in the future, thereby complementing the database for Germany.

[Working Paper] [Appendix]

Weekly Consumption Tracker for Germany

WHAT DRIVES GERMAN TREND OUTPUT GROWTH?

A SECTORAL VIEW

CESifo Working Paper No. 11089, 2024

(with L. Zarges)

R&R: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

In this paper, we outline material and capital linkages across sectors to quantify the role of the German production network in amplifying sectoral dynamics on aggregate trend gross domestic product growth. This allows us to study the impact of sectoral labor input and total factor productivity trend growth variation on the persistent decline in long-run output growth. Our estimation reveals that sector-specific developments have historically accounted for half of this long-term decline. Zooming into the reunification period, we find a pronounced decline of total factor productivity growth in Professional and Business Services together with a fall in labor input growth in the Construction sector to drive the sharp decline of German trend output growth over the 1990s. We further document significant changes regarding the sectors’ importance as input suppliers to the economy over the past decades. Our analysis identifies the labor-intensive Construction sector as a major input hub in the production network, its long-run amplification effect exceeding four times its share in value added. Given the impending demographic change, the low potential for automation in this sector may significantly reduce future German trend output growth.

[Working Paper] [Appendix]

Sectoral Contributions to Decline in Trend GDP Growth

TAX REVENUE FORECAST ERRORS: WRONG PREDICITIONS OF THE TAX BASE OR THE ELASTICITY?

CESifo Working Paper No. 9148, 2021

(with M. Göttert)

Submitted

In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions and false predictions of the elasticities linking the tax base to its corresponding tax type. Across six tax types and the overall tax sum for Germany, we find a heterogeneous degree of relative importance of both sources. Whereas wrong macroeconomic assumptions matter most for profit-related taxes and the wage tax, false predictions of the elasticities mainly drive the forecast errors of the energy tax and the sales taxes. For the overall tax sum, more than two-third of the error can be attributed to wrong macroeconomic predictions and approximately one-third to false assumptions on the elasticity. Our results suggest that outsourcing the macroeconomic projections to an independent forecaster and methodological improvements can reduce tax revenue forecast errors.

[Working Paper]

Origin of the Tax Forecast Error and Explanatory Power

WORK IN PROGRESS

ECONOMIC FORECASTING WITH SPATIAL EFFECTS: AN ASSESSMENT FOR GERMAN DISTRICTS

In this reserach project, I will apply panel techniques to frecasting annual GDP growth at the German district level. mimeo

THE SLOWDOWN IN GERMAN TREND GDP GROWTH: AGGREGATE OR STATE-SPECIFIC FACTORS?

German trend GDP growth is falling for more than three decades. In this paper, I try to identify whether this decline is driven by aggregate and common factors or by state-specific factors and thus by regional features. mimeo

FORECASTING LABOR PRODUCTIVITY: A NEW MEASURE BASED ON BUSINESS SURVEY RESULTS

(with S. Sauer, K. Wohlrabe and T. Wollmershäuser)

In this paper, we develop a new measure for labor productivity from business survey results and test its properties to forecasting German data. mimeo

A NEW COMPOSITE BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATOR FOR THE GERMAN STATES

(with D. Schaller)

In this paper, we introduce a new business cycle indicator for the 16 German states that is based on newly established time series and standard factor models. mimeo